How Will Trump’s Presidency Impact The Supplement Industry?

In a stunning political resurrection, Donald Trump has shattered Democrat dreams after being elected for a second term in the White House, following his previous stint that ended in 2021. Across the globe, reactions have been intense. While some celebrated with fervour as the divisive businessman comprehensively defeated Kamala Harris, others took to the streets and social media to voice their deep despair. Whether driven by concerns over the economy, health, security, or other pressing issues, people everywhere had their reasons for reacting as they did.

But what does Trump’s somewhat unexpected return to the Oval Office mean for the U.S. supplement industry? It’s easy to assume that the impact will be minimal, if any. However, as the president-elect sets about translating his campaign promises into actual policy, the supplement landscape could shift quickly and dramatically.

Two key factors that played a pivotal role in Trump’s campaign, and are likely to become the major talking points of his presidency, are:

1. Increased tariffs on foreign goods
2. Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s influential role in guiding health policy 

When these become administrative reality, the U.S. supplement industry could be in for drastic change. Certain ingredients could become harder to source, and Kennedy’s vocal criticism of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may lead to significant changes in regulation. So, let’s explore the exact nuances of what could happen…

Sourcing Ingredients

If you’ve been following the presidential race in recent months and caught any of Trump’s rallies, you’ve undoubtedly heard his impassioned speeches on trade imbalances and economic competition with China. Trump’s answer? Raising tariffs on Chinese products to as high as 60% in a bid to revitalise the U.S. economy.

However, the president-elect won’t just stop at Chinese goods. Trump has also stated that he will hike tariffs on goods from the European Union with trade between the two regions also heavily imbalanced. 

The core issue facing the U.S. supplement industry is the near-absence of domestic sources for essential ingredients, such as letter vitamins, while many of the plants used in herbal products are rarely cultivated within the country.

In fact, the USA imports an overwhelming portion of its vitamins from China, including:

• 94% of its vitamin B6
• Over 91% of its vitamin C
• More than 78% of all vitamins

Beyond China, global production capacity simply isn’t sufficient to meet the USA’s demands.

This could lead to fewer supplement products on store shelves or products containing lower vitamin doses than before. Additionally, it may cause price hikes that consumers might be reluctant to accept, potentially reducing sales nationwide.

However, Trump’s proposed tariff increase comes with the promise of boosting American production, creating the potential for a domestic supply chain for ingredients.

This anticipated supply chain, however, will likely take some time to materialise, meaning product availability in the U.S. could decline in the interim.

Regulation

“The FDA’s war on public health is about to end,” according to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is set to take on a “big role” in guiding health policy, where he will have the ability to “go wild” according to Trump. 

Taking things a step further, Kennedy Jr. said: “If you work for the FDA and are part of this corrupt system, I have two messages for you: 1. Preserve your records, and 2. Pack your bags.” 

But what will be the fallout of Kennedy’s clash with the federal agency responsible for regulating dietary supplements? Well, it could weaken the pharmaceutical stronghold, potentially validating the role of supplements in health care.

Sounds promising for the supplement industry, right? Not entirely. This shift could also mean looser regulations for supplement companies, empowering fringe players to push unchecked products. As a result, the industry’s credibility could take a serious hit as products not fit for sale or consumption begin to enter the market. 

This may erode consumer trust in supplements, leaving reputable brands struggling to prove their credibility to the American public, causing them to witness a decrease in sales.

The Bottom Line

Trump’s return to office could lead to huge changes in the supplement industry. 

Higher tariffs on foreign goods may strain ingredient supplies, pushing prices up and altering product availability. However, this could lead to the creation of a vast domestic supply chain for ingredients.

Meanwhile, looser regulations could also spark both opportunity and risk: while it might give supplements a greater role in health care, it could also invite unchecked products that hurt the industry’s reputation. 

For American consumers and supplement companies alike, the coming years could prove extremely challenging, with much depending on how these policies unfold.